Friday, October 8, 2010

expectations

Since bidding for my jewel-encrusted bra in the eBay charity auction has exceeded our original expectations, I'm concerned that some of you may be confusing this bra for something that it's not.

- Britney Spears



The glyph industry makes me philosophical. It makes me think.

I can’t help it – it just does.

Here’s an example: Recently I’ve had issues with a camper. He only posts a single glyph of each sort at a time… that’s all he needs to do cause he’s always at the ready to post again. If I post at 7am in the morning – he’s there. 12 midnight – he’s there! During a day off from work – he’s there! At any time over the weekend or on a weeknight – he’s there ! It’s truly astonishing. And no, I don’t think he’s a bot as he’s offline and then logs on the instant I’ve logged to another toon.

To say the least this got to be quite frustrating.

I tried to think of ways to defeat this fellow and decided upon creating for him his very own category in QA3. He’s doesn’t carry a full contingent of glyphs so I now post glyphs under two separate sets of parameters. The camper’s glyphs get a 2g25s fallback with a 1g90s minimum – 4 glyph posting, every other glyph I have is set to a 59g fallback and a 4g80s minimum – two glyph posting. My process is to scan the AH and search under his name – every time he learns a new glyph it pops to the top of my search and I reassign it and crash it down to 2g25s. On a good day our little AH moves about 80 glyphs – now at 50g that’s 4K but at 2g25s it’s only 180g.

Unless he’s herbing himself and his herbs are therefore “free” ; ) surely this limited gold is sufficient to move him to another patch – after all, on each glyph he potentially has an investment of somewhere between 1g50s to 3g50s. So that really oughta crush his spirit and move him on – surely…

Apparently not. : )

So expectations then. For this fellow making 40s a glyph could be an incredible high – a windfall of unprecedented proportions. Or… he could be financially backed and working up to having the full contingent of glyphs. Been there myself – it’s fun! What I’m getting at is that his expectations of the process he and I are engaged in could well be being met and/or exceeded. He might be happy with a crashed glyph market – he may be exuberant in the knowledge that he is building his stake and not expecting to make much gold at all.

So where does that leave us?

With “my” expectations of course. They’re the only thing I really have any control over. Control over the glyph market – an illusion… control over a camper – doubly so! I used to expect to see a minimum of 8K glyph gold a week. Now I expect to see about 450g every 48 hours. …so this is still a good industry for me as my (adjusted) expectation are being met. ; ) Every non-camper-glyph sale is a success, every camper-glyph-sale a victory!

I’ve said it before – glyphs are a long game. Due to the general view that there is easy money to be made competitors tend to come and go. This fellow may be going back to school on Monday and his time investment may come to an end, or he might be independently wealthy and sit on the AH day and night for the next two years. So I’m fascinated to see how this plays out – I’ll keep you all posted.


Stay liquid guys,


M.

2 comments:

  1. Very interesting - good post! I'd love to hear some updates on how this battle goes with the release of 4.0. Or whether your strategy will be to try to keep stuff cinched down, or to jump the price way up and hope demand pierces his undercuts often enough to make up the difference for you.

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  2. @Chad

    Thought I'd put an update in on this one. You know the saying "No one wins a war"? Well it's not true - I won! I pushed my camper down to 1g90s posts across all 120 glyphs he had on the AH. Then one of my competitors bought out both the camper and me. I figure I sold about 60 cheap glyphs that arvo. After this the camper logged on a few times but never posted again. Perhaps this mass buyout by a separate source was what finally broke his spirit. : ) Regardless he was gone in time for 4.0.1 but would have been unlikely to have made much of a dent there anyway all things considered.

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