Hiya folks – I’ve come to the patch late unfortunately due to a kerfutted graphics card followed by having to reinstall a bunch of corrupted software. Unsurprisingly upon my return I find things are not where I left them.
I was very interested to find how ol’ Frozo had gone in his role as creator of panaceas:
Problem 1 – Frost Lotus is rare and therefore flasks are too expensive, Blizz would like them to be plentiful and cheap so that raiders raid rather than bitching
Problem 2 – most servers are swimming in near-vendor priced frozen orbs on the AH, there’s a million of em around and they’re getting underfoot.
Eureka! – Blizz 1) ups the drop rate of Frost Lotus; 2) Brings in Frozo who will do a 1 for 1 swap of orbs for lotuses + he’s good for a bunch of other goodies.
Problem solved right?
Wrong!
There are a variety of key ingredients that go into a flask: yes yes, the Frost Lotus is definitely one but there is also a mix of various Northrend herbs. On my server Frost Lotus has stabilised at the price of orbs pre patch, roughly around 20G, so less then half their previous AH value… but the Northrend herbs have gone way up. Most are trading at 180-300% or their previous base value. As a result flasks have gone through the roof settling at somewhere around 35G – 45G a flask up from the low 20s. This is great for the moguls around who have stockpiled orbs “and” herbs but pretty bloody awful for the punters who are now paying even more for their raiding mats.
Why did this happen? Because herbers, similar to all farmers are used to getting a random payoff when they hit up a node. In almost Pavlovian antiscipation they’re used to waiting hopefully for the frost lotus drop and when it does BANG they’ve made 40G. Now it drops a lot more often but due to the Frozo Effect it’s worth only half as much and sales are not guaranteed – they have to battle against every man and his dog who might get an orb and throw it onto the AH. Many of them have, understandably, become disheartened. With a much reduced hit of WHOOPEE to sustain them many appear to have packed the game in – at least for the time being. So the serious farmers appear to be taking a holiday (or, the horror the horror, may have retired permanently) – well fine, everyone needs a holiday sometime. But as a result pressure from the big consumers, ie, the inscription and flask barons, is driving the market into the stratosphere. Lichbloom is sitting at 80G a stack on server with most others hovering around 55G. I’d imagine other larger servers are fairing better but on my low-pop server when a large farmer drops out it’s felt – when several go it’s bedlam.
For myself I’m making hay in the flask market with a bunch of stockpiled mats but I have stock for only about 4 or 5 weeks of heavy trading (or 6 to 8 medium trading which is more normal) but if the farmers haven’t returned by that time it’s going to get interesting. And I’m not talking “My what an unusual downturn” interesting I’m talking “Let’s eat that guy over there” interesting.
So I’ll report back in a week or two on this one and let you guys know how it pans out.
My advice… If you need mats and are able to focus on other money making ventures... do so. Prices will drop if not back to pre patch values at least a good deal lower then currently. If there is indeed a void in the farming market peeps will rise to fill it.
Stay liquid,
M
